Sleeper Picks: PGA Championship

NOTE: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.

Outright

Wyndham Clark (+11000) … That this market is even included on this page serves to pique your curiosity if you truly believe that neither Rory McIlroy nor Scottie Scheffler will prevail. That condition hits like hyperbole, but the odds for either are shorter than +500, and in the deepest major of the series at that. So, if you’re willing to take the plunge on one extreme, you might as well double-dip. No one among the thicker slice of the elite is hotter or colder than Clark. Last season, eight of his nine top 25s were top 10s, four of which were podiums. He’s quieted this year but still rose for one T5. His PGA TOUR breakthrough victory occurred at Quail Hollow just two years ago is his only top 40 in four appearances. And his win at the U.S. Open the following month is his only top-30 finish in 13 starts in the majors. (McIlroy finished second and Scheffler third at The Los Angeles Country Club that week.) The best part about his aggravating swings in performance is that his value tilts in our favor.

Top five

Maverick McNealy (+1400) … If he delivers in what is his 10th career appearance in a major, it’ll be his first top-five, -10 and -20 finish in the series. It’s going to happen for the 12th-ranked golfer in the world at some point, and it’s likely going to be sooner rather than later. He has three podium finishes in his last eight starts, so it’s also recent territory. Since regaining his form following his upper-body injury, the 29-year-old has been on a trajectory befitting his pedigree, and he’s comfortable in the space. Lauded for his strength as a putter, and deservedly so, he’s actually gained more strokes on the field on approach this season. And that’s after giving strokes away with the same set of sticks last year. Because he can hang with the biggest boys off the tee, his combination of precision and putting could be potent.

Top 10

Daniel Berger (+500) … If the PGA TOUR still handed out an award for Comeback Player of the Year, he’d have been a finalist in 2024 but only due to his kick in the FedExCup Fall that he closed by going 6-for-6 with a co-runner-up at The RSM Classic. He’s extended the top-shelf form (for which he was known before his back injury) this year with two podiums among six top 20s, so he’s already among the most improved among his peers ... again. Of course, that’s relative to his unintentional extended break that preceded it, because this reflects what he truly is – a reliable performer. He’s recorded at least one top 10 in all of the majors except this one, but he has connected for a pair of top 15s. Currently inside the top 15 on TOUR in Total Driving, Proximity to the Hole, Scrambling, Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Par-4 Scoring and Scoring Average (Adjusted).

Top 20

Denny McCarthy (+290) … While Adam Hadwin has a PGA TOUR victory, the winless McCarthy comps strongly to the Canadian because both are labeled as outstanding putters, which they are – McCarthy is ninth in Strokes Gained: Putting and 12th in Bogey Avoidance – but both also bring the heat with other aspects of the game. McCarthy generates his opportunities to shine by finding fairways. The sum of his parts is why he’s cashed in 16 consecutive starts. That includes 12 this season, half of which have resulted in a top 20. And in the last three editions of what’s now known as the Truist Championship at Quail Hollow, he’s finished a respective T25, T8 and T6 with a scoring average of 69.58 on the challenging par 71.

Bud Cauley (+450) … This must be one of the more fulfilling opportunities of his career because he earned his way into the field on consistently strong play in just the last two months and without the benefit of a victory. It secured his first start in a major since the 2020 PGA Championship. Over a year later, he needed surgery for additional complications related to the automobile crash in 2018 and then sat out of sanctioned competition until January of 2024. Now 35 years of age, he’s suddenly a bona fide threat reminiscent of when he splashed on the scene as a non-member in 2011. Currently fifth on the PGA TOUR in adjusted scoring on the shoulders of precision on approach (sixth in proximity) and phenomenal putting (18th inside 10 feet and fourth from 10-15 feet).

Odds were sourced at FanDuel.

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