Sleeper Picks: Truist Championship

In a limited field headlined by defending champ Rory McIlroy and featuring the likes of Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa and Ludvig Åberg in close pursuit, it’s easy to get lost in the star power of the Truist Championship. But value still lies well beneath the first tier on the odds board this week at Philadelphia Cricket Club, whether looking for longshot outright options or players who could cash a plus-money ticket for finish position.

Let’s take a look at some players (and markets) to consider before the action starts on the Wissahickon Course on Thursday (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook):

To win

Keith Mitchell (+6000) ... There’s a lot to like this week about Mitchell, who is playing in the Signature Event on a sponsor exemption. Four straight finishes of T18 or better, including a runner-up at the Corales Puntacana Championship, show that his game is trending toward a second TOUR victory. He’s among the best drivers on TOUR, ranking sixth this season in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, and he’s also sixth in Scoring Average with a sterling 69.34 average. Mitchell has done most of his damage on par-4 holes this year, ranking seventh in Par-4 Scoring, and that’ll be of added importance this week in Philadelphia. It’s been six years since Mitchell notched his maiden TOUR win, but having missed just one cut in 11 starts, he presents a tempting longshot option who could potentially surprise this stacked field.

Top-five finish

Russell Henley (+500) ... Henley has plenty of upside this week, and not just because he won a Signature Event earlier this year at Bay Hill. The veteran is playing some of the best golf of his career in 2025, ranking fifth on TOUR in total strokes gained and fourth in birdie average. He had one bad round in Augusta, an opening 79, but bounced back with a 68 and then finished T8 at Harbour Town. The course setup also plays into Henley’s hand this week, as the par-70 layout features just two par 5s. He’s second on TOUR in Par-3 Scoring this season and fourth in Par-4 Scoring, so expect plenty of circles on the scorecard even if conditions firm up over the weekend.

Top-10 finish

Keegan Bradley (+300) ... Bradley was the last player to win a TOUR event in the Philadelphia area, capturing the 2018 BMW Championship at nearby Aronimink. He also won the BMW last year, but now is seemingly playing better – or at least more consistently. Captain America has missed only one cut in 10 starts this year, finishing inside the top 20 in six of them, including his last two Signature Event starts. Bradley is up to sixth on TOUR in SG: Tee-to-Green this season, and he’s 16th in Total Driving. Not everyone faces his same pressure of trying to qualify for his own U.S. Ryder Cup team, but his on-course performance in 2025 has been particularly steady – making him a target for a market like top-10 finish in a no-cut event where he’s assured of having four rounds to recover from any early hiccups as he looks to return to the leaderboards in the City of Brotherly Love.

Top-20 finish

Andrew Novak (+180) ... Ride the hot hand. Novak nearly took home the last Signature Event, losing to Justin Thomas in a playoff at Harbour Town, before teaming with Ben Griffin for his first TOUR win at the Zurich Classic in New Orleans. He’s playing the best golf of his career heading into a critical juncture of the season, and I expect him to build on that momentum rather than resting on his laurels. Novak has three straight top-three finishes, including a T3 at the Valero Texas Open, and has cracked the top 20 in two other Signature Events this season (T13 at both Pebble Beach and Torrey Pines).

Top-30 finish

Rasmus Højgaard (+140) ... Højgaard barely snuck into the field via the Aon Swing 5, thanks in large part to his runner-up finish at the Zurich Classic alongside brother Nicolai. A closing 75 at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson likely felt more like a 90 given scoring trends last week near Dallas, but the Danish twin has now made four straight cuts, including the Masters, after a slow start to the season. He’s among the longest drivers in the field, ranking ninth on TOUR in Driving Distance this season, and those with extra firepower off the tee could benefit from some aggressive angles of attack this week on a course where everyone in the field will be learning best strategic options on the fly.

Top-40 finish

Erik van Rooyen (+100) ... The odds are in your favor in this market, given we’re talking about a top-40 finish out of a 72-man field – McIlroy’s odds here, for instance, are a staggering -2500 (bet $25 to win $1). I’d consider Gary Woodland (-125), who has the requisite length off the tee and was a runner-up in Houston in March, as he continues his comeback efforts. But instead, I’ll slide a little further down the board and take even money with the guy that just shot 23 under (and lost). Van Rooyen has been hit-or-miss this season, but his strengths are tee-to-green and he’s brimming with confidence after going 65-63 over the weekend in Texas.

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