Sleeper Picks: Zurich Classic of New Orleans

NOTE: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.

Outright

Karl Vilips and Michael Thorbjornsen (+4000) … It’s fair to wonder if, even just a year ago today, they were the daydreamers to partner in this tournament. They were in their last weeks of their collegiate careers at Stanford University. Thorbjornsen would finish atop PGA TOUR University, while Vilips earned his PGA TOUR card via the Korn Ferry Tour. The Aussie is the only rookie this season with a victory, but he’s just 1-for-4 with a T54 at the RBC Heritage thereafter. Thorbjornsen had scuffled all season until last week when he settled for a co-runner-up at the Corales Puntacana Championship, so his confidence hasn’t been this high in a while. They play a similar game from tee to green, and Vilips is the more efficient putter, but the selling point that the 23-year-olds offer that others don’t is that they’re only a year removed from playing team golf with each other and on a regular basis.

Top 5

Rico Hoey and Sam Ryder (+900) … Ryder disappointed would-be investors at Corales when he withdrew early, but we can reattach now. He’s 10-for-10 on the season with four top 25s on the strength of a skill that has him third on the PGA TOUR in Strokes Gained: Putting and 16th in adjusted scoring. Hoey is third in SG: Off-the-Tee, fifth in greens in regulation and 10th in proximity to the hole, so they constitute puzzle pieces perfectly fit to each other. Of course, that also exposes their individual weaknesses, but Hoey can be an electric performer on his own ball, anyway, and he arrives with a pair of top 15s in his last three starts. Of the pair, Ryder has the success in this tournament, albeit entirely with Doc Redman when they went T17-3rd-T26 from 2021-2023, but Redman profiles as a ball-striker like Hoey, so there’s a ton of juice on this value.

Top 10

Luke List and Henrik Norlander (+650) … While this presents as an aggressive send, think again. In two tries, this duo has finished T23 (2023) and T19 (2024), but they sat one shot off the lead entering last year’s final round. So, not only do they know how to knock it around TPC Louisiana, they’re back to avenge a closing 75 in alternate shot. On paper, they’re one of the best models for filling in each other’s blanks, and that can be reassuring, especially because they’ve already achieved success in this format. While he’s struggled all season, List still sends it. Meanwhile, Norlander’s patented ball-striking has yielded four top 20s, three of which in his last four starts. That they need to play zone defense on the greens is why I didn’t reach into a Top 5 (at +1600).

Top 20

Mark Hubbard and Ryan Brehm (+400) … The angle at this tandem isn’t too dissimilar to the one immediately above. Brehm bombs it like List, and his form is just as cold. (Saddled with past champion status, he’s back on the Korn Ferry Tour full-time in 2025. This is just his second PGA TOUR start of the season.) Brehm’s form was pretty much the same a year ago, but he and Hubbard solved the equation for a third-place finish. They also placed T14 in third previous collaboration in 2022 (after sitting T7 through three rounds). More recently and after three months without making any noise, Hubbard finished T12 at Corales on Sunday, so there is some mojo to marry their prior success.

Odds were sourced at FanDuel.

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