Sleeper Picks: Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard

After being mauled by "The Bear Trap," failing to highlight winner Joe Highsmith at +11000 odds, we get back to looking for the longshots at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard with new vigor.

The reality is that the Signature Events have been the domain of the chalk in recent times, but those under the radar can play with house money to an extent, given the lack of expectation.

The last nine Signature Event winners were +2500 or lower in the outright markets, but perhaps the 10th time is the charm. In any event, a quarter of top-10 finishes in the three Signature Events this season have been at high odds for that finish, so let’s try to find those diamonds in the rough.

Outright

Will Zalatoris +5000 … The odds aren’t as high as I would like, but you’ve got to figure Zalatoris, who was T10 on debut here in 2021 and T4 here last year, is someone who can upset the chalk applecart. He said three poor swings (that ended up plugged in bunkers) cost him five shots last year, so you can be sure he will be trying to stay out of the sand traps. A former Arnold Palmer scholarship recipient to play golf at Wake Forest means there are also some positive vibes flowing his way at this event. Zalatoris quietly has three top-26s this season, but it is the horse for course scenario that intrigues me.

*Note: The player I slot in the outright sleeper category is someone I’d also advocate betting across any or all of the top 5, top 10, top 20, top 30, top 40 or make cut markets.

Top 5

Daniel Berger +750 … This four-time TOUR winner has been knocking on the door all season, contending at the WM Phoenix Open and The Genesis Invitational before starting strong only to fade to a T25. I’m going to believe he can ramp things back up and continue the form that has him 12th in SG: Total. It’s been a long time since he visited Bay Hill competitively, but he does have a top 10 under his belt. He’s sixth on TOUR in proximity from 200-225 yards, a key distance this week.

Top 10

Nick Taylor +850 … The Canadian has already won the 2025 Sony Open in Hawaii and is coming of a T9 at The Genesis. Taylor ranks fourth in SG: Approach and 15th in SG: Total, numbers that can match it with the chalk. He is 14th in Birdie Average on TOUR and a solid 27th in Bogey Avoidance. What also helps is Taylor is coming off a T12 at Bay Hill in 2024 as well.

Top 20

Sahith Theegala +210 … A reputation pick here, rather than a current form one. Theegala was T6 at Bay Hill in 2024 and T14 the year prior, so he’s proven he can mix it on this course. With the limited field, the odds aren’t going to be too high for these higher place markets, but coming off a T17 at The Genesis Invitational, his best result this season, perhaps he’s turned a corner.

Top 40

Max McGreevy +100 … Very few players are plus-money for a top 40 in a 72-man field, but one of them is McGreevy and he’s coming off a T25 in Mexico and a T4 at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches. But we are also going to trust the number-crunchers at PGATOUR.COM who claim that of every player in this field, McGreevy is the best course fit. Even fractionally ahead of Scottie Scheffler! Ranking high in SG: Approach from both the fairway and rough, SG: Off-the-Tee on Par 4s, SG: Approach on Par 3s and SG: Putting from outside 20-feet has them expecting big things from the rookie.

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