Sleeper Picks: Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches

The champagne was on ice ready to pop last week as our lead sleeper Aldrich Potgieter paced the field in Mexico for much of the week, only to fall at the final hurdle! Hopefully, you had him sprinkled across all the place markets as suggested and still took some profit home.

Can we go one better this week at PGA National Resort and find a few players at longer odds who could leapfrog the chalk and bring in juicy returns? Let’s find out.

Outright

Nicolai Højgaard +6000 … These odds in this level of field won’t remain here for long for the European Ryder Cupper. Coming off a sneaky top 10 when he wasn’t at full fitness (illness) in Mexico he sits third in SG: Approach, and 10th in SG: Tee-to-Green, plus 14th in Bogey Avoidance and seventh in SG: Total! The disclaimer here is he is on the late/early side of the draw, which might get hit by some wind bias, however, he’s performed around the world in all sorts of conditions before. The Dane has three DP World Tour wins to his name.

Note: The player I slot in the outright sleeper category is someone I’d also advocate betting across any or all of the Top 5, Top 10, Top 20, Top 30, Top 40 or Make Cut markets.

Top 5

Jhonattan Vegas (incl. ties) +1000 … This four-time TOUR winner has been plodding along reasonably this season with a fourth-place finish at The Sentry the highlight. Another top-five finish might be an aggressive play, but consider he was fourth here in 2017 and has only missed the cut once in 11 attempts at PGA National. Sits fifth on TOUR right now in Bogey Avoidance and a reasonable 29th in SG: Tee-to-Green.

Top 10

Kevin Roy (incl. ties) +650 … If you want to talk Bogey Avoidance, let’s talk Roy who is second on TOUR this season in the metric. He is also at a very reasonable 33rd in SG: Tee-to-Green and comes into the week with two recent top 20s at The American Express and last week at the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld. Top 10 might be an aggressive move considering he’s only had one career top 10 on TOUR and that came in Bermuda in 2023 – although that shows an ability to tame the wind. T29 in his previous appearance here.

Top 20

Isaiah Salinda (incl. ties) +360 … I always like to find a guy who is coming off a good week to throw in the mix for a sleeper, and who's better than the man who was third last week in Mexico and still has good odds for a top-20 to back it up. With around a quarter of all approach shots this week coming from 175-200 yards, including the two par 3s at "The Bear Trap," the fact he ranks second on TOUR in Proximity from that distance makes me feel even better. He will need to avoid the big numbers, but he’s feeling himself right now!

Top 40

Zach Johnson +200 … A cagey veteran who has played the layout plenty of times is available at decent odds here. The two-time major winner understands the winds, understands how to play smart golf, and as colleague Rob Bolton pointed out, has connected for a top 25 here in three of his last four trips. Has cashed a top 40 ticket in seven trips over his career.

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