The Five: Burning questions ahead of PGA Championship

CHARLOTTE, N.C. – The second major championship of the season has arrived, alongside of bevy of storylines.

Quail Hollow Club is familiar to the pro golf world as an annual stop on the PGA TOUR calendar for the Truist Championship, but is now flexing its muscle as a PGA Championship venue for the second time in the last decade. So what’s in store for the 107th PGA Championship?

Here’s a look at five burning questions ahead of the week.

1. Could this major set up any better for Rory McIlroy?

It’s hard to imagine a better scenario for Rory McIlroy entering a major championship. It’s his first since ending his decade-plus winless major drought. He’s playing better than any golfer in the world, and he returns to a course that he owns – so much so that Jordan Spieth jokingly renamed Quail Hollow, “Rory McIlroy Country Club.” Oh, and the course was drenched from strong rainfall over the last two days, only exacerbating McIlroy’s top two skills – the length and height of his shots.

That recipe would usually give McIlroy fans some anxiety, given all expectations that fell flat when he didn’t get any of the recent close calls over the finish line. But now with a green jacket in his closet and the weight of the world off his shoulders, McIlroy can just play. That’s a dangerous proposition for the rest of the field.

Here’s a quick reminder of McIlroy’s bona fides around Quail Hollow. He’s won four times, first as a 19-year-old in 2010 and most recently last year, dusting Xander Schauffele in the final pairing to win the 2024 Truist Championship. His scoring average of 69.48 is nearly a full shot better than anyone else. He’s amassed nine top 10s and only one missed cut in 13 starts.

There’s plenty of legitimacy behind the “Rory McIlroy Country Club” moniker. If he wins this week, he will claim his sixth major and fifth title at the course. He’s already an honorary member at Quail Hollow. At that point, you might as well name the club after him.

2. Is another career Grand Slam coming?

In the preceding 59 years, only one golfer – Tiger Woods – had achieved the career Grand Slam. If Spieth wins this week, two golfers will have done it within a month of each other.

With McIlroy’s career Grand Slam secured, the attention now turns to Spieth, who is one of just two active players – alongside Phil Mickelson – who need one major to complete the achievement. Spieth, like McIlroy, is no stranger to the pressure of the achievement. This year is his ninth attempt at completing the career Grand Slam.

Though Spieth has had very few close calls at the event since, a mix of poor form and the PGA Championship’s trend toward brawnier golf courses, which hasn’t suited Spieth’s game until his recent improvements off the tee.

A tie for third in 2019 is the closest he’s come, though he finished six shots back that year to Brooks Koepka. That is his only top 10 in that span.

“For me, if I could only win one tournament for the rest of my life, I'd pick this one for that reason,” Spieth said. “Obviously, watching Rory win after giving it a try for a number of years was inspiring.

“I'd love to throw my hat in the ring and give it a chance come the weekend this week.”

Spieth’s track record at Quail Hollow isn’t great. He finished T28 at the 2017 PGA Championship, his best finish in four appearances.

3. How will Quail Hollow play?

It’s going to be a wet week at Quail Hollow. The weather has already reared its head in the proceedings, stopping play multiple times during Monday and Tuesday’s practice rounds and leaving the course soaked.

That’s not ideal ahead of any tournament, particularly the major championships that prefer firm and fast conditions. That just won’t be the case in Charlotte this week, at least initially. The ground is sufficiently saturated, leaving little chance for balls to roll out in the fairways or around the greens. That will favor longer hitters, particularly those who hit it high. That’s reflected in the betting odds, which have shifted in the direction of both McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau.

To offer a silver lining, players expect by Friday that the greens will have returned to the pre-rain firmness. That will be the course’s primary defense against the bomb and gauge approach of many of the top players.

“If we can get some sun and some wind out, they're going to dry up really quick and kind of get to that Quail Hollow that we're all used to seeing,” Schauffele said.

Rain is possible each day with a warm, ranging from a 20% chance on Thursday to 70% late Wednesday.

“It's always a challenge,” said PGA of America Chief Competitions Officer Kerry Haigh. “You always want good weather for your championships. It sounds like we have some warmer weather coming, 85, high 80s, Thursday, Friday is currently projected. And, hopefully avoid the isolated thunderstorms that could potentially come when you have that kind of heat.

4. How sticky will course history be?

Quail Hollow is not a typical major championship venue because, by and large, courses that host annual PGA TOUR stops hardly ever host major championships.

That makes this week unique because it’s familiar. While the Masters returns to the same course every year, the other three majors are defined, in part, because of the curiosity and unknown of their venues, which rotate every year.

Quail Hollow is far from an unknown. Outside of the 20 PGA Professionals, almost all of the field has seen the course at some point over the last decade, meaning there’s an incredible amount of data and course history to base assumptions and predictions.

But how sticky will all that course history be, with the PGA of America intent on setting it up somewhat differently than what is presented every year during the Truist Championship?

It’s hard to manipulate too much. Outside of growing the rough up, the PGA of America setup team is working with the same canvas. So, should all the typical horses for courses once again be considered the favorites?

That includes some of the game’s top names. McIlroy’s history is well known and already documented. Schauffele has finished runner-up in back-to-back playings of the Truist. Justin Thomas won the 2017 PGA Championship when it was hosted at Quail Hollow. A tournament with McIlroy, Schauffele and Thomas all contending down the back nine on Sunday would be incredible theater, and it seems well within reach given their history.

5. Is the pressure building for Scottie Scheffler to grab major No. 3?

At what point is it fair to expect Scottie Scheffler to win a major at a course other than Augusta National? It feels a bit quick to say that time is already here, but for a player of Scheffler’s caliber, it also doesn’t feel out of bounds.

For as good as Scheffler has been and for as many wins as he’s accrued over the last three years, the one glaring missing piece is a major outside of the Masters. It’s not that he hasn’t played well outside of Augusta. He has multiple top fives at the U.S. Open and PGA Championship, along with a pair of top-10s at The Open. He has the game to win at any of the four major championships. All that’s left is to do it.

Scheffler will more than likely knock one off in short order, but it’s far from a guarantee. Thomas was a dominant player in 2017 and 2018 with a profile that seemed destined to win at any venue. He still has only two PGA Championships and nothing else.

Fair or unfair, if Scheffler doesn’t pick off one of the remaining three majors in 2025, it will start becoming a bigger story. He’s an ideal course fit at both Quail Hollow and the U.S. Open at Oakmont. He can avoid the noise entirely by winning one of those.