Horses for Courses: Scottie Scheffler, Hideki Matsuyama both eyeing third WM Phoenix Open title

The WM Phoenix Open returns this week to TPC Scottsdale and the Stadium Course, and it’s the site of some of the biggest “horse for course” correlation on TOUR. The layout, designed by Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morrish, opened in 1987 and was redesigned most recently by Weiskopf before the 2015 tournament. But in more recent years it has become a place where a handful of big names play well with frequency – including the top-ranked player in the world.

The boisterous weekend crowds spread across the property have not bothered two-time champion Scottie Scheffler (+280).In the last four events in the Phoenix desert sprawl, the world No. 1 has never posted a four-round total worse than 16-under. After missing the cut on debut in 2020, he produced 16 consecutive rounds at par or better and 10 consecutive loops in the 60s. He broke into the top 10 with T7 in 2021 and hit the accelerator with back-to-back wins the following two years. Looking to match Steve Stricker as the last man to win any event in three consecutive years, his 18-under total in 2024 fell three shots short of a playoff. The Texan led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach the previous two years and returns to the site of his first PGA TOUR victory.

Hideki Matsuyama (+1600) became the first player since the desert fox, Johnny Miller, in the mid-1970s to successfully defend the title. The Japanese star debuted in 2014 with T4 and followed with T2 the next season. Winning the 2016 and 2017 editions, he needed a playoff in each event to create the final separation. Withdrawing after an opening-round 69, his attempt to win three consecutive events stalled out. Signing for T8 in 2022 was his last foray into the top 10, but he made the cut in all 10 events where he was healthy enough to compete. In 41 rounds, 39 navigated at par or better through the cacti and desert.

Players listed below are competing this week;* won in playoff

Nick Taylor (+6500) joined Matsuyama as champions who have recently won at Waialae Country Club in Honolulu. Setting the post-2014 renovation tournament scoring record with WM ambassador Charley Hoffman (+11000) on 21-under last year, the Canadian also established a new course record. Posting 60 in the first round, he eclipsed the old mark, 61, last set in 2021. Finishing third in Par Breakers, he became the 10th consecutive winner to rank T6 or better circling birdies and eagles, plus he led the field in SG: Putting. Finishing second to Scheffler in 2023 on 18-under, he is 39-under over the last two editions.

Justin Thomas (+1400) and his affinity for desert golf in Scottsdale has resulted in four top-10 paydays in his last six visits. The two-time major champion, playing in his 11th consecutive event, has rattled off eight straight paydays of T17 or better, including three of the last six T4 or better. He missed playing the weekend twice (2017, 2016) but has never taken home a check for worse than T17.

Making his debut in 2022, Sahith Theegala (+4500) led after 36 and 54 holes before cashing T3. Last season, he led after 36 holes, played in the final group with Taylor on Sunday, and took home money for solo fifth. Making his fourth consecutive start, he played all three weekends prior (T39, 2023).

Notables

• The highest winning total since 2015 is 15-under.
• Eight of the last 10 winners have ranked T6 or better in Ball-Striking.
• Taylor and Matsuyama join Aaron Baddeley (2007) and Vijay Singh (2003) as the only international winners this century.
• Only two players won on debut this century, including 23-year-old J.B. Holmes in 2006, and none since 2015.
• Holmes and Matsuyama are the youngest winners at age 23.
• Kenny Perry is the oldest winner at 48 in 2009.
• Tom Weiskopf designs feature on TOUR at TPC Craig Ranch, where K.H. Lee (+27000) has won twice, and the Black Desert Championship, where Matt McCarty (+30000) won in the fall of 2024.
• Every winner in the last decade ranked T11 or better in Greens in Regulation.

Oddsmaker’s extras

Sam Burns (+2500): Missing the cut in three of his first four starts, the five-time winner on TOUR added T3 in 2024 to T6 in 2023 and T22 in 2021. All three times he cashed a check, he posted a round of 64.

Jordan Spieth (+9000): In eight visits, he’s recorded five top-10 paydays, including T6 the last two years. Posting 61 in Round 3 in 2021, he cashed T4 for his best result at TPC Scottsdale.

Sungjae Im (+2500): A perfect five-from-five, 17 of the 20 rounds posted from the Korean are in red figures. After cashing T7 on debut, he added T6 in the 2023 edition.

Kurt Kitayama (+6500): The Las Vegas resident posted four rounds in the 60s for T8 in 2024 after T23 on debut in 2023.

Daniel Berger (+12000): Injuries have muted his recent performances at TPC Scottsdale, but he cashed T11 or better in four of his first six visits. Tasty longshot.

Ryan Palmer (+100000): Playing on a one-time career earnings exemption this season, the Texan has twice cashed second and has played the weekend in his last two visits.

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