Draws and Fades: Assessing in-play options as Scottie Scheffler sits in prime position at Quail Hollow

CHARLOTTE, N.C. – The leader of the 107th PGA Championship is tied for fifth heading into the weekend. At least, that’s how oddsmakers are assessing the Quail Hollow leaderboard at the halfway point.

Jhonattan Vegas remains a surprise name at the top for the second straight night, but it’s Scottie Scheffler that continues to dominate the betting markets. Scheffler trails Vegas by three shots after the second round, but he has plummeted to a +220 betting favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Vegas, who started the week as a +60000 longshot, holds a two-shot cushion but minimal faith in the eyes of bettors given his lack of recent form and sparse record in majors. At +1200, he’s behind both Scheffler and Bryson DeChambeau and alongside two others (Matt Fitzpatrick and Si Woo Kim) who are spotting him two strokes heading into the weekend.

Updated odds to win PGA Championship (via FanDuel)

• +210: Scottie Scheffler (5-under)
• +850: Bryson DeChambeau (3-under)
• +1200: Jhonattan Vegas (8-under), Si Woo Kim (6-under), Matt Fitzpatrick (6-under)
• +2200: Max Homa (5-under)
• +2500: Jon Rahm (2-under)
• +3000: Robert MacIntyre (4-under)

I was hesitant to load up on Vegas stock last night after an opening 64, and the tenor of his position changed significantly with a closing double bogey on No. 18 that cut his advantage in half. With nothing better than a T-22 finish from 11 prior major starts, I’m nodding in agreement with how oddsmakers have positioned the Venezuelan – and the notion that Scheffler, without his best stuff through two rounds, appears in great position.

So let’s take a look at some in-play options at the halfway point in the Queen City:

Outright: Scottie Scheffler (+210)

This isn’t rocket science, but it sure does feel like this number could have a minus attached to it come Saturday night. Scheffler’s mud ball double bogey on No. 16 is dead and buried, and he’s in prime position despite, by his own admission, not having his best stuff.

“Yesterday and today were days that were pretty challenging out there,” Scheffler said. “So I’m proud to still be in the golf tournament.”

That might be a bit of an understatement, as Scheffler will go into the weekend with a target on his back – but one that he’s gotten quite comfortable wearing in recent years. Without a weakness in his game, he can chip away at Quail Hollow, a venue that sometimes requires patience. It feels like a 68-68 weekend could net him some hardware.

Outright: Matt Fitzpatrick (+1200)

He may not be hooping it from 252 yards like Si Woo Kim, but of the two players closest to Vegas, I trust Fitzpatrick a bit more. The mental advantage his 2022 U.S. Open trophy offers will grow as the weekend progresses, with just six major champions among the top 35 after two rounds. He understands the cauldron and, while his game has been inconsistent over the last 12 to 18 months, he has the savvy to capitalize on a good week.

Fitzpatrick is sixth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green through 36 holes, and if that standing holds up he’ll have a chance to challenge for the Wanamaker Trophy come Sunday afternoon.

Top 10: Aaron Rai (+330)

I’m not ready to give up on the Englishman just yet, as Rai endured a rollercoaster second round but still heads into the third round T17 at 3-under. Rai earned his lone PGA TOUR win in nearby Greensboro at the Wyndham Championship, and he continues to level up his game as his career progresses. Contending in majors is the next step, and his stellar iron play has kept him in the mix despite losing strokes to the field off the tee.

Rai isn’t among the biggest hitters on TOUR, but he’ll be able to pick his spots. If the irons stay true, he’s going to rise up the standings.

Top 20: Adam Scott (+200)

It’s a bit of a flier, but I don’t think we’ve heard the last of the Aussie – one month after Justin Rose, nearly the same age, came within inches of a second major title. Scott is 13th in SG: Tee-to-Green and plodding away, following a 2-under 69 with an even-par 71. He’s well-equipped to handle the changing conditions that a weekend at a major brings.

If you’re feeling extra frisky, you could throw some on Scott as a +12000 longshot – I expect someone from that 2-under group to do what Homa and Kim did today, post a round in the mid-60s and make a big move. At the very least, I expect him to progress up the leaderboard over the next two days and eventually crack the top 20 for a plus-money payday.

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