Draws and Fades: It won’t be wire-to-wire, but now is time to back Justin Thomas at RBC Heritage

It was wobbly. It was messy. It even got a little muddy.

The third round of the RBC Heritage didn’t go as planned for Justin Thomas, who surrendered the lead for the first time all tournament. But for in-play bettors, that might mean opportunity to back the two-time major champion as he looks to end a nearly three-year victory drought.

Thomas stumbled at times during Saturday’s effort at Harbour Town Golf Links, ultimately signing for a 2-under 69 that dropped him one shot behind Si Woo Kim. But there was a two-shot swing on the final green, with Kim making his first bogey of the day and Thomas rolling in a 16-footer for birdie. That flipped a potential three-shot deficit into a one-shot margin, and now Thomas is still the betting favorite heading into the final round on Hilton Head.

Updated odds to win RBC Heritage (via FanDuel Sportsbook)

• +240: Justin Thomas
• +250: Si Woo Kim
• +600: Andrew Novak
• +750: Maverick McNealy
• +900: Scottie Scheffler
• +1200: Tommy Fleetwood
• +1800: Brian Harman

Overall it’s a relatively tight leaderboard, with Kim sitting at 15 under but seven others starting the day within four shots of the lead – including Scheffler, the defending champ. Here’s how I’d look at the in-play options heading into the last loop around Harbour Town:

Draws

Justin Thomas (+240)

Just as it was for Rory McIlroy last week, albeit for far different stakes, it’s time for Thomas. The three-year victory drought, which dates back to the 2022 PGA Championship, has featured a number of close calls and a pair of runner-up finishes this season. He seemed in control just a few weeks ago at Innisbrook before Viktor Hovland charged to the finish line ahead of him. This time around, playing alongside McNealy ahead of Novak and Kim, he’ll leave no doubt.

Thomas likely couldn’t have hit the ball much worse in the third round, ranking 64th out of 72 players in SG: Off-the-Tee and 47th in SG: Approach. If this was his bad round, it hurt him but it didn’t kill him. He still got in under 70, and he’s inside the top 10 for the week in SG: Around the Green and SG: Putting.

Thomas will learn from his mistakes on Saturday, and he’s no longer burdened by an effort to go wire-to-wire after starting with a 10-under 61. Players will always prefer to lead over trailing, but this dynamic might work just right for Thomas who will be buoyed by the two-shot swing on No. 18.

Scottie Scheffler (+900)

This is just out of principle, since Scheffler is unlikely to tee off much above +500 pre-tournament this year but now there’s an opportunity to back him at nearly double the price with just one round to go in a tournament where he can definitely still win. Scheffler is continuing to dial in his irons, ranking second this week in SG: Approach, and he rebounded from some uncharacteristically rough approach play in Round 2. He’ll need to make gains on and around the greens to make a run, but he needs only to run back the tape from last year’s triumph to see how it can be done around Harbour Town.

Scheffler will have plenty of crowd support as he looks to become the first back-to-back tartan jacket recipient since Boo Weekley in 2007-08. He’s clearly not in the same form he had a year ago, when he won his fourth tournament of the year at this venue, but he still has enough firepower to get it done if the putts start falling on Sunday.

Fade

Si Woo Kim (+250)

Speaking of putts falling, that’s what Kim has been enjoying all week. The leader in SG: Putting through 54 holes, Kim has picked up more than five strokes on the field with putter in hand – enough to hide some rough patches elsewhere.

The South Korean product clearly loves Pete Dye designs, having won THE PLAYERS and The American Express, and he’s also captured the Wyndham Championship at cozy Sedgefield. It’s not exactly a surprise to see him contending this week, although his profile historically has tended toward feast-or-famine. But now he’s in the driver’s seat, and while a pairing with Novak likely helps him more than another tee time with Thomas, there’s too much firepower among the players teeing off at 11 under or better for me to back the overnight leader.

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