Draws and Fades: Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas on equal footing in eyes of oddsmakers

The RBC Heritage belonged to Justin Thomas, at least for a day.

After two runner-up finishes this year and with a winless drought approaching three years, Thomas torched Harbour Town Golf Links Thursday en route to a 10-under 61 that tied the course record. It gave him a three-shot lead in the no-cut event, with world No. 1 and defending champ Scottie Scheffler in close pursuit.

After a day of ideal conditions in which nearly half the field shot in the 60s, oddsmakers are essentially putting Thomas and Scheffler on equal footing atop the 72-man field.

Updated odds to win RBC Heritage (via FanDuel Sportsbook)

• +190: Scottie Scheffler
• +210: Justin Thomas
• +900: Russell Henley
• +2200: Wyndham Clark
• +2800: Patrick Cantlay
• +4500: Ludvig Åberg, Tommy Fleetwood, J.J. Spaun, Collin Morikawa

With Thomas and Scheffler nearly tied at the top, here’s a look at some of the in-play angles that caught my eye after the opening round – both for the outright market and finish position options.

Winner

Brian Harman (+5000): I don’t have a big interest in betting either Scheffler or Thomas at these ultra-low prices, given there’s still 54 holes to play in the Lowcountry. But Harman piques my interest as someone who’s very much in the mix after an opening 66, but being priced like a longshot given the power at the top of the odds board.

Harman just won two weeks ago at the Valero Texas Open and started quickly Thursday, playing his first five holes in 4 under. He led the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, which can be an important stat at Harbour Town, given that the tiny greens are going to be hard to find in regulation for even the most accurate players. Harman actually lost ground with putter, but his tee-to-green work was more than solid. This is a tempting price on a player with some recent momentum who has finished T-13 or better in three of his last four trips to Harbour Town.

Top 5

Patrick Cantlay (+280): Death, taxes and Patrick Cantlay contending at Harbour Town. He’s at it again through one round, leading the field in SG: Off-the-Tee en route to a 4-under 67 that left him T10 and six shots adrift. Cantlay lost ground with his putter but still did enough elsewhere to start the week on the right foot, and this is simply a place where he has become a mainstay on the leaderboard with three straight top-three finishes and five such results since 2017.

Top 10

Sami Valimaki (+500): Valimaki has made his mint this season with his iron play, and his strokes gained tally got inverted in the opening round on Hilton Head. Valimaki was 13th or better in three of the four major strokes gained categories, then ranked 55th in SG: Approach as his typical strength turned into his biggest weakness. I’m banking on that iron play rebounding the rest of the way, as Valimaki lost ground with a couple of wayward swings on the back nine after recording birdies on five of his first nine holes.

Top 20

Matt Kuchar (+145): Is he going to win? Probably not. But after a solid start and playing off a sponsor exemption, I expect the veteran to stick around. Kuchar circled five birdies against just one bogey on Thursday, and while he trails Thomas by six shots, he’s comfortably T10 through one round. Kuchar has a great track record at Harbour Town, with seven top-10s highlighted by his 2014 victory, and he’s coming off a T12 finish two weeks ago in San Antonio. He was near the bottom of the field in Approach play but got a lot out of his short game, a trend that should continue on a course where he feels right at home.

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