How Truist Championship offers betting clues for PGA Championship at Quail Hollow

CHARLOTTE, N.C. – PGA Championship are changing by the minute in Charlotte. Tournament officials faced one deluge after another on Monday as the players tried to find some dry time on the practice tee (and course). We’ve seen Quail Hollow play wet before on the PGA TOUR, but this is a PGA Championship. Our only comparable event for a major setup was eight years ago at the same venue in arid, August conditions. Can we use that championship to handicap this year’s edition – or is there a better method for finding our next major champion in 2025?

We can learn from the 2017 PGA Championship leaderboard. That event occurred in August on a very firm and fast Quail Hollow landscape. The top of the leaderboard was covered in short-game specialists and average-length drivers. The current wet and agronomic conditions will make this week’s leaderboard completely different. Instead of focusing on scrambling around the green acumen and saving par – only 12 players were under par in 2017 – we should be paying attention to what the current conditions dictate: ball speed and scoring.

The Truist Championship has been contested at Quail Hollow since 2003 on a near-annual basis on the PGA TOUR. Prolific drivers and putters have led on those leaderboards for over two decades. Watching the players in between storms work on the practice facilities this week, I’ve seen a very specific strategy on display. There have been plenty of drivers and long irons alongside hours spent on the practice green. Based upon what I am witnessing, I believe you can use the historical Strokes Gained data from the Truist Championships to handicap the PGA Championship better than the 2017 PGA Championship. I would even try and emphasize those springs where the field competed in similarly wet conditions.

The first key to contending is pure ball speed. A very long course just got considerably longer because of the rain. Look no further than Quail Hollow’s four-time champion, Rory McIlroy (+450). I see two reasons why McIlroy makes sense here every time he tees it up with the driver. The first is length, but the second may not be as obvious. McIlroy plays a draw (right-to-left ball flight) primarily off the tee. The design of Quail Hollow is a right-handed drawers paradise from my PGA pro perspective. Xander Schauffele (+2200) has recorded two straight runner-up finishes in the Truist Championship (2023, 2024). Schauffele also has incredible ball speed and plays a draw off the tee.

Building on those two traits, let’s shift our focus to the iron game. Quail Hollow rewards aggressive iron players from long range. No player epitomizes an attacking personality from 200 yards plus than Viktor Hovland (+5500). With two top-three results in the last two PGA Championships, Hovland also has a top-three finish at Quail Hollow in his career. The best proximity players from long range can launch it high with their mid to long irons. Scottie Scheffler (+400) is good at everything, but this is his superpower. He consistently hits the ball pin-high because he can stop the ball from 200 yards, an invaluable skill at this course. The last player to win the PGA at Quail Hollow is Justin Thomas (+2000). Thomas is an incredible iron player and proved it that year, hitting a bunch of greens in regulation in impossibly firm conditions.

To complete the Quail Hollow trait trifecta, I saved the most valuable separating skill for last. Winners of the Truist Championship when it has been played at Quail Hollow gain an average of seven(!) strokes on the field with their putter. There are several great comparable courses for Quail Hollow, and the one mentioned most often is Augusta National Golf Club. From tee to green, I agree, but Masters winners do not do it with their putter. Historically, 90 percent or more of their strokes gained for the week they won come from tee to green. Winners at Quail Hollow gain approximately 60 percent with their tee to green shots and 40 percent with their flatstick.

We witnessed how good Bryson DeChambeau (+700) was on the greens at Pinehurst last year, but other players like Jason Day (+8000) and Denny McCarthy (+17500) have great career records at Quail Hollow in the Truist, fueled by their flatstick. As much as the course conditions continue to change, the core skills needed to contend only become more amplified. Soft greens become target practice for the best iron players. If you are long off the tee, it’s even more of an advantage when it’s wet. Finally, major winners make a few putts – and to win at Quail Hollow, it’s proven you’ll need to make more than your fair share.

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