Bolton: Captain strategy crucial for PGA Championship

So, how ya holdin’ up? With eight tournaments complete and three remaining in Segment 2 of PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by PGA TOUR Superstore, the stresses of roster management probably feel heavier than when we opened the phase at THE PLAYERS Championship. That can be the experience even if everything has transpired as you’ve hoped it would.

Because we can control only so much, we’re never on autopilot, but that’s part of the fun of why we play in the first place. So, let’s deal with the cards in our hands and finish the segment smart and strong. Segment 3, which will be here soon enough, will present an entirely different set of challenges that could make your current situation seem simple. More on that when it’s upon us.

This week’s PGA Championship rewards its winner with 75 FedExCup bonus points. That’s the obvious attraction, as are the 70 FedExCup bonus points awaiting the top performer of the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday that concludes Segment 2. Double those spiffs if the winners are your captains. However, both tournaments are expected to yield fewer round-by-round fantasy points than next week’s Charles Schwab Challenge (for which the winner receives 50 FedExCup bonus points). All three tournaments will have a 36-hole cut.

As I’ve been messaging throughout Segment 2, and punctuated with analysis and some comparative data concerning Scottie Scheffler’s impactful triumph at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson in this space last week, what this stretch has taught us is to spread out the use of your captains of choice to avoid “intra-roster blocking” as it were.

The timely fortune of the Charles Schwab Challenge is that Scheffler is expected to make his sixth consecutive appearance. So, rather than block, say, Rory McIlroy with Scheffler as your captain at Quail Hollow Club this week, consider designating McIlroy as your captain and stowing Scheffler on your bench with the plan to start and ride him as your captain at Colonial. This way, you get the potential best of both possibilities. Remember, this was my strategy for burning Scheffler at TPC Craig Ranch, and I thrived as a member of the minority. The strategy unlocked the power of the captain, and it was real and spectacular. No matter your current league rank, leverage it with Scheffler at home in Texas if you have one start remaining.

The other bone tossed our way at the PGA Championship consists of the plethora of PGA TOUR non-members who will not be teeing it up in either of the last two events of Segment 2, and it’s already been mathematically impossible to exhaust more than two starts for the elite among them, so have at them. If you play the game every week, you’re likely going to be compelled to use at least two of them to plug the gaps left behind by your favorite charges among members.

Captain

Rory McIlroy … You wouldn’t know it by reading my Power Rankings, but it was hard not to gush (more) over what he achieved at the Masters and the possibilities at Quail Hollow given his decorated history on the course.

Now that I’m the front-runner of my little league, he’s the best stymie at the perfect time, but he’s also the best option for gamers in pursuit. (I post the latest points and ranks among the Experts on my X (every Wednesday.) Chip away at the edges and settle for getting lucky. Even though it’s a major, it doesn’t mean that this is always when you do damage. Sometimes it’s best just to keep pace regardless of the stakes for the golfers.

Other considerations

• Scottie Scheffler … While this seems obvious, as I outlined in the opening, I’m sold on saving him for Colonial. Worst case, he’s on your bench at Quail Hollow through two rounds. Because the field for the Charles Schwab is scheduled to be released on Friday afternoon, you can hedge. (For the record, I am out of starts for him.)
• Justin Thomas ... I’ve been limiting this subsection to two choices, so he nips Bryson DeChambeau because of his prior success at Quail Hollow. (They are a respective 3-4 in my Power Rankings.) The way that Thomas has been performing of late, he’s the savvy alternative for chasers. (He delivered at T2 as my captain last week.)

Rounding out the roster

The PGA Championship presents the deepest field among the majors, so there are plenty of options to go around. Just remember that fantasy scoring will not come close to last year’s record of red numbers at Valhalla Golf Club, or even a smattering of other recent editions with relatively favorable setups. With that fact contributing to your calculus, respect your roster management and focus on building a team consisting only of the guys you believe have the best chance of embracing the Wanamaker Trophy on Sunday. In other words, chase the FedExCup bonus points with your complementary pieces.

MY STARTERS

• Bryson DeChambeau
• Rory McIlroy (C)
• Patrick Reed
• Justin Thomas

MY BENCH

• Jon Rahm (1)
• Xander Schauffele (2)

Careful

For almost every tournament, a usually impressive subset of the field warrants avoiding, and it might be represented in my Power Rankings, which is not written in the context of any fantasy golf format. In this section, I single out those who demand a pause and why.

Jordan Spieth ... I believe in the intangible of inspiration as much as the next person, and I’m even willing to prioritize it in the absence of empirical evidence, but his über-scrappiness will struggle to be enough to propel him to contend at testy Quail Hollow, much less complete the career Grand Slam. His 5-0-0 record here for the 2022 Presidents Cup stands tall in opposition to the fade, but he’s averaged just 72.50 in six rounds playing only his own ball on the course since.

Ludvig Åberg ... This caution echoes a recent snapshot of his season in this space and for good reason. Although he’s ninth in the FedExCup, it’s been due to top-heavy performance in 10 starts that include only one top 50 in his last five. And despite pedigree and limitless expectations, which are always unfair, we navigate in a results-based arena. He’s also making his debut at Quail Hollow. His best slot is on the bench as a “just in case” to support chalk for chasers.

Brooks Koepka ... Speaking of results, his most recent slate in the majors isn’t matching the expectations of a five-time major champion in his prime. Since his last in this tournament in 2023, he’s cashed in six of seven but finished outside the top 25 in all of the last six.

Joaquin Niemann ... If there was an over-under market for career top 10s in the majors and his line was at one-half, you’d bet the over with as much confidence as anything you’d ever wager. However, 23 starts into the series, and he’s still stuck on zero. What’s more, he’s connected for only one top 20. He’s still just 26 years of age, but this narrative continues to follow him until he proves otherwise.

Returning to competition

Justin Rose ... You figured that something was amiss when he signed for a 7-over 77 after his second round at Philadelphia Cricket Club. Sure enough, an illness was too much to overcome, so he called it quits to rest and recharge for Quail Hollow. With a fifth-place finish here in 2014 and a pair of thirds since, there’s reason to dismiss last week’s early exit in favor of his wisdom around this track. And of course, he’s already answered the bell this year on multiple iconic venues on which he’s performed well before, the most recent of which at Augusta National (P2). Assuming there isn’t any residual evidence of a prolonged problem with his health, lean into him in DFS and a Top 30 market.

Jason Day ... Withdrew early in the week of the Truist Championship. An explanation wasn’t disclosed, but with his history of sinus-related and back maladies, we’re just happy that we had advance notice to react. While he’s been a fountain of wealth in long-term formats, the Aussie is Kryptonite for all weekly considerations.

Sahith Theegala ... Bowed out of the Truist before its finale with a sore neck. He carded an 8-over 78 in the third round. It’s been a wild and objectively disappointing season for the 27-year-old in his fourth season on TOUR. He’s completed 12 of 14 tournaments but only two for a top 25 and neither of those for a top 15, so he’s 110th in the FedExCup. He also finished outside the top 50 in both of his previous starts at Quail Hollow, so lean into his opposition in head-to-head matchups.

Michael Kim ... Tapped out of the Truist Championship during the third with a sore back. Given that it was a guaranteed payday, you can appreciate the discomfort that he was feeling. Obviously, the timing couldn’t have been worse with the PGA Championship up next, and it’s not like Quail Hollow will acquiesce.

Matt Wallace ... Forced out of THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson during the second round, citing an injured neck, but he’s connected for only one top 25 among just four paydays in 11 starts this season.

Notable W/Ds

Billy Horschel ... Announced last week that he’s having surgery on his right hip this week.

Tiger Woods ... Entering his third month since rupturing his left Achilles, for which he had surgery. There remains no timetable to return to hitting balls, much less competition, but he’s now missed the first two majors of 2025. The four-time PGA champion will turn 50 in December.

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